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- calendar_today October 10, 2026
The Return of National Unity Politics in Canada
For decades, national unity was considered a defining responsibility of any Canadian prime minister. Until recently, the reality of separatist movements and referendum threats was less pronounced. However, recent developments have thrust these issues back into the spotlight, presenting significant challenges for Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Rise of Separatist Sentiment in Quebec and Alberta
Before this summer, it had been 30 years since any Canadian prime minister confronted a provincial referendum on secession, and over a decade since a separatist government held power in Quebec. Justin Trudeau spent nine years as prime minister without directly encountering either challenge. Mark Carney, however, now faces both.
The Parti Québécois (PQ) recently secured a victory in the Quebec election, reviving concerns about a renewed referendum on Quebec sovereignty. Similarly, separatist sentiment in Alberta has grown. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has attributed this resurgence to over ten years of Liberal government in Ottawa, noting that 10 years ago, separatist movements were less active: "Ten years ago there were no referendums in any part of the country to separate. There was no separatist movement in Alberta whatsoever, the PQ was defeated, the Bloc [Québécois] did not even have party status [in Parliament]," Poilievre remarked.
Historical Context of Secession Support
While correlation and causation can be difficult to disentangle in politics, the history is more nuanced than Poilievre suggests. A 2014 survey showed that 23 per cent of Albertans believed their province would be better off as its own country—a figure echoed in a recent poll supporting a referendum on Alberta separation. In Quebec, support for sovereignty has remained relatively stable over recent years and was largely unaffected by Trudeau's tenure. The last PQ government, prior to this, held office from 2012 to 2014, under Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
When the PQ last came to power in 2012, Harper suggested Quebecers wanted change but did not view it as a mandate for separation. At that time, the PQ had not campaigned aggressively on a referendum, winning 54 seats with 32 per cent of the vote. In contrast, the recent PQ victory—with 59 seats and 28 per cent of the vote—came after campaigning on an explicit commitment to hold another referendum.
Quebec's Position on a Future Referendum
The likelihood of an imminent Quebec referendum remains low. Polling by Léger in September found that just nine per cent of Quebecers identified "making Quebec a country" as a top concern. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the incoming premier, has indicated that a referendum will not be held while Donald Trump is president of the United States, effectively shelving the question until at least 2029. Quebec voters could go to the polls again before then.
Support for Quebec secession, while historically low, is far from extinct. Stéphane Dion, former Intergovernmental Affairs Minister and architect of the Clarity Act after the 1995 referendum, cautioned that referendums can gain momentum quickly and should not be underestimated.
Tensions Within Canadian Federalism
Canada, as a large federation, has historically managed national unity tensions peaceably. André Pratte, journalist and former senator, emphasized that recurring debates over unity are a natural aspect of Canadian federalism. "The standard for success in a large federation like Canada is not the absence of tensions ... but to manage those tensions in a peaceful manner," Pratte explained. He noted that ongoing vigilance is necessary to prevent national unity concerns from escalating.
Comparative data highlights that separatist sentiment exists in other federations as well. A poll by YouGov found 18 per cent of Americans favored the idea of their state seceding, with higher numbers in states like California and Texas.
Federal-Provincial Relations under Carney's Leadership
Leading as a non-Quebecer, Mark Carney faces the challenge of guiding national unity at a time when separatist dynamics are evolving. Pratte points out that Carney will need to ensure his government is prepared to respond swiftly and thoughtfully to developments in Quebec. Regarding collaborative efforts, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc has stressed the importance of focusing on areas of agreement, such as housing and homelessness, rather than hypothetical scenarios about future referendums.
Analysts identify several potential points of friction ahead, including disagreements over high-speed rail projects, the monarchy, and immigration. Pratte advises that the federal government distinguish between legitimate Quebec concerns and instances where provincial leaders may seek confrontation for strategic purposes. Dion recommends that the government show steadfast support for the French language to demonstrate allyship with Quebecers.
The Path Forward for National Unity
Throughout recent Alberta referendums, Carney has relied on federal policy achievements and cooperation with the Alberta government to make the case for unity. Dion underscores the importance of acting on principle, suggesting that government policy should reflect genuine beliefs rather than simply aiming to persuade separatists. As both Alberta and Quebec watch closely for federal responses, the path for national unity remains uncertain.
As Dion observed years ago, the question of how to maintain unity among diverse populations may be the most important challenge facing Canada. For Carney, as for all Canadian prime ministers, this burden continues to shape the nation’s political landscape.
Source: cbc.ca.
