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Electric vehicle adoption in the United States is once again encountering headwinds. After a year-and-a-half of nearly uninterrupted month-over-month gains, EV sales have begun to decline. Genesis and Volvo have seen buyers turn away from their electric models, and both automakers have since announced changes to their lineups as a result.

The political environment has hardly helped. A more modest subsidy program and a rollback of vehicle pollution rules have left fewer carrots on the federal end of the stick. However, vehicle analysts say the biggest hurdle to EV adoption in the U.S. might just be American garages.

Parking to Plug In

Consumer surveys have long indicated that range anxiety and charging are the number one concern among potential EV buyers. A new report from Telemetry Vice President Sam Abuelsamid delves into this concern, highlighting a somewhat neglected aspect of the issue: how Americans use their garages.

While much has been made of expanding ultra-fast charging networks, the vast majority of EV charging still takes place at home. An estimated 80 percent of EV charging is performed using AC power, typically at a single-family dwelling. According to a recent study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 42 percent of homeowners already have access to a plug capable of level 2 (240 volt) charging near where they park their vehicle.

This number, though, could increase significantly—going as high as 68 percent—if homeowners decluttered their garages and altered their parking habits. “Parking behavior, namely whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage, will likely become a key factor in EV adoption,” Abuelsamid says. “90 percent of all houses can add a 240 V outlet near where cars could be parked.”

Opening up a garage to a vehicle rather than clutter or other storage could more than double the number of EV-ready homes from 31 million to more than 50 million. Add in homes that can add new wiring, and that total climbs to over 72 million. This number is higher than Telemetry’s own optimistic projection for EV penetration in 2035, which ranges from 33 to 57 million vehicles.

Paper parking spaces, though, don’t necessarily mean ready-to-charge at home. The same NREL study found nearly 34 million homes would require expensive electrical upgrades before a level 2 charger could be added. These upgrades, which range from new wiring to entire electrical panel replacements, can cost homeowners thousands of dollars.

Taken together, this number undercuts one of the EV’s main value propositions: long-term affordability. Add the additional cost of charger installation to the purchase price, and the total cost of ownership can quickly approach (and in some cases, exceed) that of a gasoline-powered car.

The Struggle in Multifamily Housing

The picture is even more challenging for the 23 percent of Americans living in multifamily housing such as apartments, condos, and townhomes. In these dwellings, the individual owner typically has little to no control over the decision to add chargers. Owners, management companies, or cooperative boards would have to make this decision first, and such an approval is not a sure thing.

The financial barrier is also greater. Adding two shared level 2 chargers to a cooperative, for example, might first require a complete electrical panel upgrade. Such an upgrade could cost millions. Wiring for distant or hard-to-reach parking spots drives up this cost still further. In these cases, unlike homeowners, residents would also not be eligible for most municipal or utility charger installation subsidies.

About one million EV owners in the U.S. currently reside in multifamily housing. Of these, only 11 percent have space to park within range of an outlet to charge. Some states require that 20–25 percent of parking spots in new developments be EV-ready, but even this requirement will only result in 6.7 million to 11.4 million charging-capable spaces in multifamily dwellings by 2035, Telemetry estimates. This falls well short of what will be needed to meet charging demand.

A Public Infrastructure Shortfall?

In light of this home charging capacity gap, public infrastructure will be needed. Telemetry estimates between 11.7 million and 14.3 million EV drivers who own a house will still need public charging in 2035. That’s in addition to the 7.8 million to 8.1 million EV owners living in multifamily dwellings who will also require public charging.

These drivers will require between 523,000 and 586,000 DC fast chargers. In addition, there will be a need for 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers nationwide to service home charging. This expansion, though, will not be without its own challenges. The electrical grid is already stressed, with major data center deployments—including new AI farms—fighting for generation and distribution capacity. Building out large public charging sites will not be easy.

EV growth may seem like a foregone conclusion, but in the U.S., it’s likely to be more complicated than meets the eye. A near-universal ability to install a home charger does not account for garage clutter, the high cost of electrical upgrades, or the struggles of multifamily living. If charger installation among multifamily residents lags, it will increase the strain on public charging. Even a greatly expanded public charging network may not be able to keep pace with demand in the decade ahead.

One thing is clear: America’s adoption of electric vehicles may depend as much on homeowners’ garages as government policies or automaker plans.